After a brief recovery in air passenger traffic in May 2025 following the end of India-Pakistan hostilities, fresh data from the Ministry of Civil Aviation shows a renewed decline in June, according to a report by ICICI Securities. “As per daily data reported by MOCA, average daily passengers had seen a decline in May 25 following the geopolitical conflict. However, post-declaration of ceasefire, domestic air travel had returned to normalcy. Average daily passengers again declined post the unfortunate Air India accident on 12 Jun 25” the ICICI Securities report noted.
According to the report, the average daily passengers in April this year were at 490K. However, a decline was witnessed in May 2025 due to india-Pakistan geopolitical conflict. However, Average daily pax returned to 4901 before 12 Jun 25 (before Air India incident), post which it has declined to 460k again.
International Travel
International air travel has gone down since May 2025 because of problems like the India-Pakistan conflict. Recently, Air India cut its international flights using wide-body aircraft by 15 percent for the next few weeks. This decision was made after the Air India-171 flight crashed in Ahmedabad, killing 241 people.
“Air India cancelled 83 wide-body operations between 12 and 17 Jun 25. As per daily data reported by MoCA, average daily international passengers have declined from 118k in Apr 25 to 113k in May 25 and 102k in Jun 25”, adds the report.
However, ICICI Securities believes that the weakness in Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) price could offset the weakness seen in passenger demand in May/Jun 25. ATF prices have experienced weakness as average ATF prices declined 8.2 per cent on a QoQ basis in QIFY26 to Rs 86k/KL vs. Rs 94k/KL in Q4FY25.
But now, because of the recent geopolitical crisis, crude oil prices are going up, which can change the dynamics for the airline sector.
“On the backdrop of the current geopolitical scenario, crude oil prices have increased approx. 20 per cent since the start of Jun 25 to USD 77/bbl, as on 19 Jun 25. This surge in prices may pose a threat to earnings in the seasonally weak Q2 ahead, the report said.
(With ANI Inputs)
